March 22, 2021 – CFS Viewpoint – Portfolio Management
As part of our continued efforts to update portfolios and manage client accounts we periodically review holdings, consider economic and market conditions, and reevaluate our investments for appropriateness and results for each person and family. While risk tolerance and age comes into play, we find it most important to consider when will the client actually be spending the invested funds. We recognize that volatility is a normal and expected part of the investing process. If a person is not anticipating spending a large portion of the funds in a portfolio in the short run there is more time for the portfolio and the investor to absorb the ups and downs of normal market activity and enjoy the ultimate results over time.
As a result of our reviews and analysis, in recent weeks we have made numerous changes to many portfolios. Your particular portfolio may or may not have been modified recently. But if yours has been, you will have received either electronically or via the US mail, prospectuses on any new funds that have been added.
At this point in time, we remain and have been very upbeat and optimistic about the vaccine driven economic recovery and have a very positive outlook on investing over the next several years and for the long term.
Now a few thoughts on volatility; as about a third of the economy springs back to life, people’s activities and businesses will normalize. During this time will see more volatility. This is normal. Prices will attempt to seek their normal levels. For example; Oil and gasoline have moved up because more people are using these products and the supply of oil is being slowed down by various government actions. Demand is rising. This increases prices. We will see oil and gasoline prices move from very low to more normal ranges.
Interest rates are rising. This is also normal in a rebounding, growing economy. They have been abnormally low for quite some time. We do not expect interest rates to go through the roof anytime soon but they have come up to the low end of normal ranges.
We will see some inflation in raw materials, technology, biotech and pharmaceutical businesses. There will be lots of fluctuation in more speculative items such as bitcoin and gold and oil and other metals. Lumber prices have gone up with a housing boom. This will continue for a while. We have also seen some shortages because many of the larger ports on the east and the west coast have not been able to ramp up their unloading and distribution facilities fast enough to bring in and unload shipments from overseas of all kinds of freight and products.
We encourage investors to remain investors rather than short-term speculators or traders. We do not chase after the trendy headline investment/trading topics. We look over the long run and are not overly concerned and focused about short term price movements either in products or commodities or in stock prices. It will be bumpy as we recover towards normalcy. This is expected in the next phase of economic growth and recovery. As investors we regularly have to absorb, accept, and tolerate fluctuations in the stock market and in the prices of many products and services as we grow the economy again. This is a normal part of getting back to normal.
If you have any questions about anything in your portfolio, or wish to talk about specific investments, or have a discussion about the current activity in the stock market and our economic outlook please call us. We will be happy to have a conversation with you about your portfolios and the investment mixture within them and anticipated time frame for spending your funds.
As usual this commentary is based solely the opinions of Brian Cassidy, Arnie Magid and Daniel Kelly. Nothing in the above written material is endorsed by, or written by, or provided by Cambridge Investment Research, Inc., or by any other outside party or firm.
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Advisory services offered through Cambridge Investment Research Advisors, Inc., a Registered Investment Advisor.
Cassidy Financial Services, LLC. and Cambridge are not affiliated.