November 2025

Welcome to the November Economic Pulse!

With Halloween behind us, the holiday season commences. But how will retail sales fare this year, and what’s driving consumers? That’s exactly what we’ve taken an in-depth look at in this month’s Economic Update.

In the absence of the usual jobs data, due to the federal government shutdown, we highlight what Connecticut businesses have been saying about expected employment changes as well as providing our standard analysis of the housing market and the state’s economy.

We hope you will give the full outlook a read, and we encourage you to share! If you have any feedback for us on what you’d like to see in future editions, you can reply here.

Stay sharp, stay informed, and keep your finger on the pulse,

Comptroller Sean Scanlon

Quick Beat:

General Fund Surplus:

$322.3 million

Special Transportation Fund Surplus:

$14.0 million

The outlook is especially uncertain this month because most economic statistics have not been provided during the federal government shutdown. Data that is available shows a mixed picture with significant risks.

Starting November 1st, the loss of food purchasing-assistance for 10% of the State’s population will hurt sales at the 2,500 retailers that accept SNAP dollars. However, federal courts ruled on Oct. 31st that the Trump administration must use contingency SNAP funding to provide at least partial benefits this week, and the Administration confirmed this will happen this morning.

The Federal Reserve voted to reduce its key short-term interest rate by 0.25% points on October 29th. That puts the target range at 3.75-4.0%, down one full percentage point from last year. Cheaper borrowing should boost economic activity in the months ahead.

Connecticut’s economy grew at a 4.6% annualized rate in Q2. Much of that growth was driven by the financial services and manufacturing industries, following contractions in those sectors in Q1. The sector containing publishing, broadcasting and telecommunications (i.e., Information) has also contributed to growth in 2025.
KEY DATES THIS MONTH

**Due to the federal government shutdown, economic data releases in November are likely to be delayed or cancelled.

Mid-November – release of November Consensus Revenue forecast for Connecticut State Budget

Mid-November – Possible Connecticut General Assembly Special Session
The 2025 holiday shopping season is underway, and much of the spending growth compared to last year is expected to result from higher prices, rather than higher unit sales. This month we spotlight the ever-changing consumer, the economic forces likely to impact shopping, and the retail industry.
Find out who benefits…
In addition to the shutdown that drags on, the Trump Administration last month canceled 12 Connecticut energy projects totaling $52.9 million. And a federal appeals court has ruled that the Trump administration’s country-specific tariffs are illegal but left them in place while the administration appeals to the Supreme Court.
More on what we’re watching
Connecticut’s economy has been growing faster than the nation’s so far this year. The finance and insurance industry accounted for the largest share, at1.59 percentage points of the 4.6% total annualized growth in the second quarter of 2025.
Who else contributed?
Connecticut home sales grew 6.1% year-over-year in September, though monthly sales declined from August in line with seasonal trends. Buyers were encouraged by falling mortgage rates and 7.4% more active listings to choose from than last September.
See what’s new
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