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Outlook: The U.S. economy is likely to continue muddling along in the near term, as the Supreme Court ruling overturning the President’s tariffs generates new uncertainty, U.S. employers added a solid 130,000 jobs in January, and real gross domestic product (GDP) growth slowed to 1.4% (preliminary SAAR) in Q4.
Consumer spending continues to be the engine of economic growth, and layoffs remain low. Connecticut’s unemployment rate remained low at 4.2% as of December. That is up from 3.2% the prior year as hiring has slowed.
The Budget Reserve Fund (BRF), also known as the Rainy Day Fund, is projected to receive $1.888 billion in transfers associated with the close out of FY 2026. After, the balance of the BRF is anticipated to temporarily reach $6.14 billion, or 25.5% of FY 2026 General Fund appropriations. Given the 18% statutory cap, Comptroller Scanlon anticipates additional transfers to reduce pension debt during the closeout of FY 2026.
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