{"id":15624,"date":"2025-08-06T10:05:31","date_gmt":"2025-08-06T14:05:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.eastwindsorchamber.com\/site\/?p=15624"},"modified":"2025-08-06T10:05:31","modified_gmt":"2025-08-06T14:05:31","slug":"economists-have-predicted-10-out-of-the-last-2-recessions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.eastwindsorchamber.com\/site\/economists-have-predicted-10-out-of-the-last-2-recessions\/","title":{"rendered":"Economists have predicted 10 out of the last 2 recessions."},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0CFS Viewpoint \u2013 Summer 2025 – <\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Economists have predicted 10 out of the last 2 recessions.<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0Sounds silly, doesn\u2019t it?<\/strong><\/p>\n

It\u2019s a long-running Wall Street joke. Year after year, forecasts predict economic disaster, and year after year, the U.S. economy keeps moving forward. In the past two decades, we\u2019ve only had one significant recession in 2008\u20132009 and a sharp, brief COVID-related dip in early 2020. Most of the dire predictions simply never materialize.<\/p>\n

And here in 2025, we\u2019ve heard the same pessimism again\u2014nonstop. Political commentators and media outlets have warned of a looming collapse, but the economy has once again proven stronger than expected. We\u2019ve seen all the same headlines and projections you\u2019ve seen\u2014but unlike many investors, we have access to extensive research from many of the largest and most respected investment firms in the country. Most of them rejected the crash narrative, we agreed.<\/p>\n

As one highly regarded economist put it (and we paraphrase): the U.S. economy is far more resilient, dynamic, and deeper than it gets credit for. We\u2019ve said this for decades, and once again, it\u2019s playing out\u2014despite the political noise and 2025\u2019s tariff fears.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s what\u2019s really been happening in the U.S. economy this year:<\/p>\n

Inflation has eased in several key areas. Energy prices\u2014oil, gas, diesel\u2014are down, which lowers costs across nearly every sector.<\/p>\n

Manufacturing is growing. More U.S. companies\u2014and many foreign ones\u2014are bringing production, research, and technology facilities back to the U.S. at a strong pace.<\/p>\n

Infrastructure investment is booming. Across the country, roads, bridges, and utilities are being built and upgraded, driving job creation and local economic activity.<\/p>\n

Technology companies are investing heavily. Dozens of global firms have committed hundreds of millions\u2014and in some cases, billions\u2014to new AI, computing, and logistics facilities, bringing hundreds of thousands of new jobs.<\/p>\n

The stock market has rebounded. After a brief pullback in March and April, markets have surged in the past three months, defying gloomy headlines.<\/p>\n

GDP growth has exceeded expectations. Despite forecasts of a slowdown, U.S. economic output has remained strong.<\/p>\n

Hiring remains healthy. Major U.S. and global tech firms are expanding, and the June jobs report came in far better than predicted.<\/p>\n

Given this backdrop, what do we see going forward?<\/p>\n

There are four major trends we\u2019re watching:<\/p>\n